Report Compiled: 2020-05-21

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 81bbd88 Max Data Date: 2020-05-20

NYT Repo Commit: 2ddb940 Max Data Date: 2020-05-20

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-07-01 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 809.8748 1241.8597 1858.4582
2020-07-01 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 743.1467 1115.8233 1768.7665
2020-07-01 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1440.1165 1933.4464 2810.2653
2020-07-01 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 857.9744 1461.1101 2791.3018
2020-07-01 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 767.5590 1359.0941 3240.0088
2020-07-01 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 952.7555 2201.7957 7255.9689
2020-07-01 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1154.6321 1900.5609 3624.9327
2020-07-01 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 970.7565 1615.3497 4718.3484
2020-07-01 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 683.1228 1067.7683 1587.6684
2020-07-01 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 581.9363 885.2007 1511.5706
2020-07-01 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 1181.5786 1716.7718 2858.1989
2020-07-01 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 800.5500 1408.5145 3820.4397
2020-07-01 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 720.5656 1061.9445 1990.4562
2020-07-01 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 630.9865 886.5949 1576.3935
2020-07-01 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 1211.7314 1873.5129 2514.8044
2020-07-01 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 1048.3497 2267.2025 8260.5806
2020-06-04 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 475.6761 600.1921 754.7711
2020-06-04 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 493.6358 724.3645 888.8506
2020-06-04 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 549.5408 652.0601 902.9300
2020-06-04 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 562.9234 662.7437 879.7085